Labour market set to stay subdued into next year

The UK labour market is set to enter 2026 in a subdued state, jobs’ website Indeed has argued, as job postings are currently running 19% below their pre-pandemic level.

This is an 8% year-on-year decline, Indeed said, though broadly unchanged since the middle of April and up 4% over the past month.

The analysis, which covers job postings from 1 January to 21 November 2025, also highlights the UK as an outlier, with postings in Europe and North America remaining above pre-pandemic levels. Low-wage occupations were tracking weaker than high-wage roles (20% below the baseline versus 14% below).

In Germany, France and Italy, by comparison, low-wage postings remain comparatively stronger. In the UK, sectors such as retail, hospitality and leisure – which employ large numbers of lower-paid workers – have been more exposed to rising payroll costs and substantial minimum wage increases, said Indeed.

Regionally, the level of job postings is down most versus pre-pandemic in the south east (-31%) and London (-29%), Indeed concluded, with both markets heavily exposed to weaker demand in office-based and professional roles.

Only Northern Ireland (+20%) and the north east (+16%) remained above their pre-pandemic baselines. All 12 UK regions saw declines in job postings over the past year.

Employers also appeared to be scaling back their wider reward packages as cost pressures persist and hiring conditions soften.

The share of job postings mentioning at least one benefit fell to 64.6% in September, down from 66.7% a year earlier, Indeed said.

Graduate roles also remain subdued: down 13% year-on-year in absolute terms and 2% lower as a share of total postings.

Salary transparency has fallen to 55.3% of postings, its lowest level since 2021, while the share of postings mentioning at least one benefit had dropped to 64.6%.

Hybrid work as an option remains widespread, with 15.2% of postings mentioning remote or hybrid options, although 56% of hybrid roles now required two or three days a week in the office, Indeed said. Mentions of AI in UK job postings had risen to 5.4%, their highest level to date, it added.

Jack Kennedy, senior economist at Indeed, said: “While the UK economy started 2025 on a stronger footing, the labour market has clearly cooled as the year has progressed. Job postings remain well below their pre-pandemic level and, despite a recent stabilisation, hiring appetite is still subdued. This is creating a tougher environment for jobseekers, particularly new entrants such as graduates.

“At the same time, employers are adjusting to a softer market by trimming benefits and becoming more selective about when and how they advertise pay. Yet flexibility remains a powerful draw. Even with tighter office expectations, hybrid work continues to feature in a large share of postings, reflecting its importance to both employers and workers.

“The picture heading into 2026 is one of caution rather than crisis. Job losses have remained modest, but job creation is clearly slower. Much will depend on how economic conditions evolve – but for now, the balance of power sits more firmly with employers than in recent years,” Kennedy added.

Separately, research by HR Datahub has concluded that one in four UK job ads still hides the salary, with transparency declining at the top, with just 39% of employers publishing director-level pay.

Its analysis of 2.8 million UK job ads revealed what it called “huge gaps” in salary transparency, with disclosure rates ranging from 100% to just 25% among the UK’s biggest employers and significant variation across industries and seniority.

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